Start Business cycle dating committee national bureau

Business cycle dating committee national bureau

A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

The trough dates for these indicators are: Macroeconomic Advisers' monthly GDP (June) The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June) Their index of monthly GDI (July) An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June) Real manufacturing and trade sales (June) Index of Industrial Production (June) Real personal income less transfers (October) Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October) Payroll survey employment (December) Household survey employment (December) The committee concluded that the choice of June 2009 as the trough month for economic activity was consistent with the later trough months in the labor-market indicators–aggregate hours and employment–for two reasons.

At the same time, industrial production, employment and unemployment remained stable.

In view of the recent strength in the economy, the Committee further postponed any preliminary dating of a peak in the business cycle.

The committee concluded that the behavior of the quarterly series for real GDP and GDI indicates that the trough occurred in mid-2009.